Is My Pokémon Card Worth Grading? Free Break-Even Calculator
How to compute whether sending a card to PSA pays off — PSA 10 expected price minus raw price minus grading fees minus shipping. The formula and worked examples for $50, $200, and $1,000 cards.
The single most expensive mistake new card sellers make is shipping cards to PSA whose break-even math never closes. Here's the formula every reseller uses, with three worked examples.
The formula
P(10), P(9), P(8) are the probabilities the card pulls each grade. For a genuinely mint-looking card you might assume 60/30/10. For something flagged with soft corners by Card Snap, more like 10/40/40.
Example 1 — modern card, mid value
- Charizard ex SAR (151), raw sale: $200
- PSA 10 sale: $600 / PSA 9 sale: $260 / PSA 8 sale: $180
- Grading: $20 + $7 shipping = $27
- P(10/9/8) = 50/35/15
Expected sale = (600 × .50) + (260 × .35) + (180 × .15) = 300 + 91 + 27 = $418. Subtract eBay 13% fees = $364. Subtract $27 grading = $337. Subtract what you would have made selling raw at $200 (less eBay = $174). Net upside from grading: $163. Worth grading.
Example 2 — modern card, low value
- Modern Holo Rare, raw sale: $20
- PSA 10 sale: $60 / PSA 9 sale: $25 / PSA 8 sale: $15
- Grading: $20 + $7 shipping = $27
- P = 50/35/15
Expected sale = (60×.50) + (25×.35) + (15×.15) = $41. Less 13% fees = $35.67. Less $27 grading = $8.67. Less raw alternative of $17.40 net = −$8.73 loss. Do not grade.
Example 3 — vintage chase
- 1st Edition Shadowless Charizard, raw sale: $4,500
- PSA 10 sale: $400,000 / PSA 9: $35,000 / PSA 8: $9,000
- Grading: $600 (Walk-Through) + $50 shipping insured
- P(10/9/8) only meaningful if the card is genuinely a candidate.
Even with P(10) = 5% the expected sale is (400000 × .05) + (35000 × .65) + (9000 × .30) = $45,450. Less 13% = $39,540. Less $650 fees = $38,890. Less raw alt $3,915. Net upside: $34,975. Grade it.
How Card Snap automates this
Card Snap Pro pulls live PSA 10, PSA 9, and raw sold prices from eBay, uses the sub-grade scores to estimate P(10/9/8), and applies the current PSA tier fee to your card's declared value — then prints the expected net profit. You see the result before you fill out a single submission form.